Tools and methods for decision support


  • Ricardo Salvador Castro Mendez
  • Aurora Serrato Rivera
  • César Francisco Guerrero Sandoval



Markov matrix, decision analysis, dropout rate


The Instituto Tecnologico de Ensenada (Ensenada Technological Institute), as provider of higher education, must face at least two perspectives for the community: on one hand, graduates from the high school are looking careers as tagged as interested for them; but on the other hand, in the future they should have a hiring panorama (labor force requested in the region). The present work provides an analysis perspective from a probabilistic point of view using Markov matrices, to study whether there is a possible future congruence point which would indicate which is (are) the career(s) that university should bet as "safe". Namely, according with the historical data of new student’s vs graduates and considering that every semester involves costs offer a career that has a major probability that students do not continuous with their studies; knowing this, will allow at school to redirect their resources to another career that has this possibility; i.e., continuity in their student’s and hiring probability. Additionally, this methodology may help to other universities in the region to make decisions that will influence in the future of the entity.