Specific weights of nineteen explanatory variables in low birth weight in the Mayan Zone of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo according to the Multiple Logistic Regression Model. Analytical observational epidemiological study of cases and controls


  • José Franco–Monsreal
  • Lidia Esther del Socorro Serralta–Peraza
  • Javier Jesús Flores–Abuxapqui




Low birth weight is an indicator that allows predicting the probability of survival of a child. In fact, there is an exponential relationship between weight deficit, gestational age, and perinatal mortality. In addition, it is important to indicate that a percentage of term children (37 ≤ weeks of gestation ≤ 41) who have low birth weight present with various sequelae of variable severity –especially in the neurological sphere– and hence the importance of predicting the presentation of low birth weight. Multiple Logistic Regression is one of the most expressive and versatile statistical instruments available for data analysis in both clinical and epidemiology. Its origin dates to the sixties with the transcendent work of Cornfield, Gordon & Smith on the risk of suffering from coronary heart disease and, in the way we know it today, with the contribution of Walter & Duncan in which addresses the issue of estimating the probability of occurrence of a certain event based on several variables. Its use has been universalized and expanded since the early eighties, due to the computer facilities available since then. Quantitative approach. The study design corresponds to that of an analytical observational epidemiological study of cases and controls with directionality response variable→explanatory variables and with prospective temporality. One thousand eight hundred fifteen newborns were studied [178 (9.81%) cases and 1,637 (90.19%) controls], which corresponds to nine controls per case. All term newborns (37 ≤ weeks of gestation ≤ 41) with weights < 2,500 g and ≥ 2,500 g were defined, respectively, as a case and as a control. The values obtained from the β Exponents or Odds Ratios indicate the positive contribution (OR> 1) in ascending numerical order of the explanatory variables alcoholism (0.0018); low socioeconomic level (0.5694); initiation of prenatal care from or after the 20th week of gestation (0.6116); birth interval ≤ 24 months (0.7942); age at menarche ≤ 12 years (1.0792); “unmarried” marital status (1.0961); female gender of the product (1.1271); maternal weight < 50 kg (1.4700); history of abortion(s) (1.5407); number of deliveries = 1 (1.5524); number of prenatal visits ≤ 5 (1.5966); type of delivery or abdominal birth route (1.6169); smoking (2.2019); number of deliveries ≥ 5 (2.2714); maternal age ≤ 19 years (2.4827); maternal age ≥ 36 years (2.8070); pathological obstetric history (4.0735); pathological personal history (4.6475); and maternal height < 150 cm (5.5092).